The “revenge game” tag can be thrown around too loosely at times, but it feels just right for Stefon Diggs heading into this marquee Week 5 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans.
These teams enter with matching 3-1 records, and my Bills vs. Texans predictions expect the offenses to show up in H-Town. Check out my top NFL picks and betting tips for this October 6 battle.
Make sure to also check out our favorite Bills vs. Texans prop picks before placing your bets!
Bills vs Texans prediction
My best betOver 47 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysisThe Buffalo Bills offense came to a stunning halt in Week 4 with a 35-10 loss to the Ravens, but I’m not wavering on Josh Allen’s ability to put 30+ points on the board, as he did in the first three games of the season.
Likewise, C.J. Stroud is performing heroics behind a wobbly offensive line and could have Tank Dell back to complete a scary receiving trio.
Given all that, I was expecting the O/U total to be higher than 47. The Bills have hit the Over in six of their last nine contests, while the Houston Texans have scored 24+ points in three of their past four home games.
Houston has struggled to run the ball without Joe Mixon, but this could be a favorable matchup against a Buffalo defense that’s allowing 156.5 rushing yards per game — the third-worst mark in the league.
Stroud threw for 345 yards in Week 4, and the threat of him finding Collins or Dell on a blink-of-the-eye deep shot is another boost for the Over. There are too many talented playmakers for this to morph into a low-scoring slugfest, and I see both teams getting to at least 24 points.
Stefon Diggs pick: Wideout eyes revenge
My best betStefon Diggs Over 56.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysisEverything we know about Stefon Diggs suggests he circled this matchup as soon as Buffalo traded him to Houston. Now he gets the chance to send a message against his former team.
As expected, the Texans have made Nico Collins the No. 1 option in the passing game, but Diggs has still seen plenty of volume from C.J. Stroud.
He’s had at least six targets in all four games, and he’s blown past this O/U total in his past two outings, including 10 catches for 94 yards against the Vikings — another former team — in Week 3.
While creating separation will be trickier if slot corner Taron Johnson is cleared to return for the Bills, I still expect Diggs to make a splash on Sunday.
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Bills vs Texans same-game parlay
Over 47Bills moneylineJames Cook anytime touchdown
+380 at BetMGM
I like this as a nice rebound spot for the Bills. The stench from their humbling SNF loss means the Buffalo moneyline sits at slight plus odds, and that feels like good value for a team out to prove Week 4 was just a blip.
The Texans have been a magnet for penalties — 40 so far, the most in the NFL — and I expect Stroud to be the quarterback dealing with the messier pockets here.
Dating back to last season, the Bills are 8-2 in their last 10 outings and they’re well placed to edge this one. James Cook’s impact was limited last weekend with Buffalo falling behind on the scoreboard, but I prefer to trust in what we saw through the first three weeks.
Cook already has four touchdowns this year, and I’m completing my SGP with his anytime touchdown prop. Allen is a threat to vulture some of the goal-line touches, but Cook’s versatility as a rusher and a pass-catcher makes him a strong candidate to find the end zone.
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Bills vs Texans odds
Bills vs Texans live odds
Bills vs Texans opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo -1 | Houston +1
- Moneyline: Buffalo -108 | Houston -104
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Bills vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Texans may feel aggrieved to be home underdogs here, but they haven’t been an ATS winner in any of their last five games.
- Buffalo has won five of its past nine road contests.
- These teams have split their last four meetings but haven’t squared off since October 2021.
- The Bills are averaging 30.5 ppg this year, and they’ve cashed in the second-quarter Over in 14 of their last 19 games.
